I hope this note finds you well. Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas.
Our position as an investment firm with a primary focus on principal safety and durable income is well known.
Sometimes we find it helpful to provide third party work from those without our proclaimed bias. The Federal Reserve is acknowledging the:
1. Place in the economic cycle;
2. Levels of corporate debt; and
3. Present asset valuations.
When you bake this cake - along with plummeting oil prices (-35%) and falling rates (10 year UST at 3.02).
I believe the Fed is trying to get in front of being blamed for a potential, material drawdown in equity market prices. Nothing is ever certain; its all about probability.